IB Paper 2 - Topic 12: Cold War - Rivalry, mistrust and accord
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You are pretty much guaranteed a question on this topic, but it does cover a significant amount of ground which is why you are probably better off preparing the essay on leaders, nations and crises. There are essentially three themes covered by the essay questions for this topic: the causes of the Cold War 1943-49 (below), development of the Cold War 1947-79 and the end of the Cold War 1980-1991.
Theme 1 - The breakdown of the Grand Alliance and the emergence of superpower rivalry in Europe and Asia (1943-1949): role of ideology; fear and aggression; economic interests; a comparison of the roles of the US and the USSR
Any question on the origins of the Cold War will revolve around either three variables: the role of ideology, fear and economics or the question of responsibilty. In effect there are two questions, one on the relative importance of one of the three variables or relative responsibility of the USSR or USA for starting the Cold War.
The role of ideology |
The Cold War is assumed to have been an ideological struggle. The United States and the Soviet Union represented two fundamentally different systems of governance, economics, and social organization. The U.S. championed free markets, individual liberties, and multiparty democracy, while the USSR promoted a state-controlled economy, collective ownership, and a one-party communist system. Both superpowers viewed global influence as a struggle between their respective ideologies. The U.S. feared that communism would lead to authoritarianism and economic stagnation, while the USSR viewed capitalism as a tool of imperialism that exploited the working class. Ideology provided a moral justification for interventionist policies. The U.S. framed its global strategy as a defence of democracy and freedom, while the USSR positioned itself as the leader of anti-imperialist, socialist movements. |
Examples George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” (1946) was a crucial ideological cause of the Cold War because it shaped the U.S. perception of the Soviet Union as an inherently expansionist and adversarial power. Truman Doctrine (1947): The U.S. committed to containing communism, leading to financial and military aid for Greece and Turkey. Marshall Plan (1948): The U.S. provided $13 billion to rebuild Western Europe, ensuring it remained capitalist. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), (1947) The CIA helped finance anti-communist movements, fund media campaigns, and influence elections Italy and France and coups in Iran (1953) Guatemala (1954). NSC-68 (1950 Truman) argued that the Soviet Union was engaged in a global campaign to spread communism. U.S. committed to a policy of military containment e.g. Korean War (1950-53 The USSR established pro-Soviet regimes in countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and East Germany, replacing multiparty systems with communist one-party states. This aligned with the Soviet ideological belief that socialism should be spread to protect workers from capitalist exploitation. In September 1947, at the founding conference of Cominform (the Communist Information Bureau), Andrei Zhdanov—a high-ranking Soviet official and close ally of Stalin—delivered a speech outlining the Soviet view of the global ideological struggle - Two Camps. Also, Comecon (1949): The USSR’s response to U.S. economic influence, tightening control over Eastern Europe. |
Past paper questions To what extent did economic interests rather than ideology lead to the breakdown of the grand alliance between 1943 and 1949? May 2017 “Ideology was the main factor that led to the emergence of superpower rivalry between 1943 and 1949.” Discuss. May 2018 To what extent did ideology lead to the breakdown of the Grand Alliance in the period 1943–1949? May 2024 |
The role of fear and aggression |
Ideological division suggests that the nature of the foreign policy of the Cold War was unique to the period, but was it really? The continuation of Russo-American rivalry in the post-Cold War period to today suggests that in reality the causes were more traditional and geo-political. Here we need to use concepts from the study of international relations. The Cold War closely followed a traditional great-power competition for ‘spheres of influence. ‘Realists’ argue that the Cold War was fundamentally about power, not ideology. The U.S. and USSR were the two strongest states after WWII, and their rivalry was inevitable due to their status as competing great powers. The Cold War can also be explained by the ‘security dilemma’, where both superpowers took defensive actions that were perceived as offensive by the other. The security dilemma is a concept in realist theory, that describes how the actions a state takes to increase its own security can unintentionally threaten other states, leading to a cycle of tension and escalation. Finally, just like any nation states in the modern era, both the U.S. and USSR often acted pragmatically rather than ideologically, doing what was considered necessary rather than what was ideologically right. |
Examples If ideology were the main factor, the U.S. and USSR would not have cooperated during WWII against Nazi Germany. Their alliance during the war shows that power considerations can override ideological differences. The Cold War closely followed a traditional great-power competition for influence. The USSR sought to create a buffer zone in Eastern Europe for security, just as Tsarist Russia had historically expanded westward. The U.S. intervened in Europe and Asia not because of anti-communist ideology but to prevent any single power from dominating Eurasia, a classic balance-of-power strategy. The security dilemma is illustrated by the fact that the U.S. saw Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe as aggressive, while the USSR saw U.S. containment policies (like NATO) as a threat. This created a cycle of military buildup and alliances, not because of ideology but because each side feared being outmatched by the other. Both the U.S. and USSR often acted pragmatically rather than ideologically: The U.S. did nothing to prevent the USSR take-over of central and eastern Europe because this was recognised as the USSR sphere of influence. The same might be said for the lack of Soviet support for the Greek communists in the post war civil war or for Mao’s communists in China. |
Past paper questions “Superpower rivalry in Europe and Asia between 1943 and 1949 led to the breakdown of the grand alliance.” To what extent do you agree with this statement? November 2018 “Fear, rather than aggression, was the main cause of superpower rivalry between 1943 and 1949.” To what extent do you agree with this statement? May 2022 “Reconciliation was more important than confrontation in superpower relations.” Discuss with reference to the period between 1980 and 1991. May 2023 “Fear, rather than aggression, was the main cause of superpower rivalry between 1943 and 1949.” To what extent do you agree with this statement? November 2023 |
The role of economic interests |
The argument that the Cold War was driven by economic interests rather than ideology or security concerns is rooted in the idea that both the United States and the Soviet Union sought to expand their economic influence and protect their economic systems. This perspective aligns well with Marxist interpretations of international relations, as well as some realist views that emphasize economic power as a foundation for geopolitical dominance. The U.S. and USSR were defending both their economic interests but also their economic systems: U.S. market capitalism v USSR command economy. |
Examples The U.S. launched the Marshall Plan (1948) not just to stop communism, but also to rebuild Western European economies and ensure they remained integrated into the American dominated global capitalist system. This is known as ‘dollar diplomacy’. The Bretton Woods system (1944) established the IMF and World Bank, favouring Western-style capitalism, both organisations were dominated by the U.S. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, 1947) promoted free trade, and ensured that American corporations had access to new markets and raw materials. The Truman Doctrine (1947) was framed as an ideological fight against communism, but in Greece and Turkey, it also protected U.S. access to Middle Eastern oil and Mediterranean trade routes. The Berlin Blockade (1948–49) was partly about economic influence—West Germany was recovering faster under capitalism, making East Berlin look weak in comparison. Perhaps most importantly, the Cold War allowed the U.S. to justify massive military spending (military-industrial complex), sustaining key American industries and employment. The USSR’s focus on industrialization and heavy industry was not just ideological; it was also about competing with the U.S. economically and preventing dependency on Western markets. The USSR extracted raw materials from Eastern Europe, ensuring that countries like Poland and East Germany served Soviet economic needs. The USSR stripped Germany’s industrial assets after WWII, taking machinery and technology to aid Soviet reconstruction. This was not just ideological, but a pragmatic effort to strengthen the Soviet economy after the devastation of WWII. The USSR imposed communist economic models on Eastern Europe through policies like: COMECON (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, 1949) A Soviet-led trade bloc ensuring that Eastern European economies remained dependent on Moscow. Stalin rejected Marshall Plan aid for Eastern Europe, fearing it would integrate Soviet-aligned states into the Western capitalist economy. Instead, he promoted economic autarky (self-sufficiency) within the Soviet sphere to prevent dependence on the U.S. |
Past paper questions To what extent did economic interests rather than ideology lead to the breakdown of the grand alliance between 1943 and 1949? May 2017 |
A comparison of the roles of the US and the USSR |
The question of who was to blame for the start of the Cold War has been widely debated by historians. The historiographical debate can be divided into three main perspectives: The Traditional or Orthodox View (U.S. Blameless, USSR to Blame) – The Revisionist View (U.S. Primarily to Blame). The Post-Revisionist View (Mutual Responsibility) The Soviet Union Was to Blame - dominant in Western scholarship during the early Cold War. Soviet Expansion in Eastern Europe imposed communist governments in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and other Eastern European countries, violating Yalta (1945). Kennan’s Long Telegram (1946) Soviet expansion was rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideology and that the USSR sought to spread communism globally. Berlin Blockade (1948–49) a direct challenge to Western influence and an attempt to force the U.S. and its allies out of Germany. Soviet Rejection of the Marshall Plan (1947) forbade Eastern European states from accepting American economic aid, strengthening the division of Europe. Historian: Arthur Schlesinger Jr. The U.S. Was to Blame - Emerging in the 1960s and 1970s, revisionist historians argued that the United States' pursuit of economic and strategic dominance provoked Soviet reactions, making it the primary instigator of the Cold War. The U.S. Sought Economic Hegemony, The Marshall Plan (1947) and the Bretton Woods system (1944) seen by USSR saw this as a way for the U.S. to expand capitalism. Unlike FDR, who sought cooperation with the USSR, President Truman took a hardline stance, rejecting compromise over Eastern Europe. Atomic Bomb (1945) to intimidate the USSR, showing its military superiority and deepening tensions. NSC-68 and the Militarization of the Cold War (1950) This U.S. policy document recommended a massive military buildup, fueling Soviet fears and increasing global tensions. Historian: William Appleman Williams The Post-Revisionist View: Mutual Responsibility. From the 1970s onward, post-revisionist historians have taken a more balanced view, arguing that both superpowers contributed to the Cold War due to mutual distrust, misperceptions, and security concerns. The Security Dilemma = U.S. and USSR saw their actions as defensive, but each interpreted the other’s moves as aggressive, leading to escalating tensions. Despite working together during WWII, ideological and strategic differences made a long-term alliance impossible. Stalin was not necessarily seeking global conquest, but his desire for security through buffer states clashed with Western interests in Europe. Truman overestimated Soviet expansionist goals, assuming that all communist movements (e.g., in Greece and China) were directly controlled by Moscow. Historian: John Lewis Gaddis |
Past paper questions No past paper questions. |